Despite a series of high-profile nominations and his own confident declarations, Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize this year are considered remote by seasoned observers. The former U.S. president has been a recurring name in the nomination pool, yet experts suggest his approach to international relations is fundamentally at odds with the values the Norwegian Nobel Committee has historically championed.
His most significant cited achievement is the brokering of the Abraham Accords in 2020, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations. This diplomatic effort earned him a nomination from U.S. Rep. Claudia Tenney. However, subsequent nominations from figures like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived past the February 1 deadline for the 2025 prize, making them irrelevant for the current cycle.
Critics point to Trump’s record as a potential disqualifier. His perceived disdain for multilateral institutions, withdrawal from international agreements, and dismissal of global climate change concerns stand in stark contrast to the committee’s focus. Experts like Theo Zenou, a historian, emphasize that the committee looks for sustained peace efforts, not just short-term diplomatic victories that may not address the root causes of conflict.
Furthermore, Trump’s outspokenness on the matter could be counterproductive. He has repeatedly told supporters he “deserves” the prize and that “everyone says” he should get it. This kind of public lobbying is unusual for potential laureates. Nina Græger of the Peace Research Institute Oslo notes that the committee will be wary of appearing to bow to political pressure, making his assertive campaign for the award a potential liability.
Ultimately, the Nobel committee prioritizes bridge-builders who embody international cooperation and reconciliation. Zenou bluntly states, “These are not words we associate with Donald Trump.” As the world awaits the announcement, the consensus among experts is that while Trump’s name generates headlines, it is unlikely to be the one read aloud in Oslo.