As bombs fall on Tehran and missiles fly across the Gulf, President Donald Trump has already begun thinking about what comes next. In a series of public statements that have astonished diplomatic observers, Trump has described his vision for post-war Iran: a new supreme leader, a new political order, and a relationship with the United States built on what he calls “harmony and peace.” The vision is remarkable for its ambition and for the distance between it and the current reality on the ground.
The military campaign intended to make that vision possible has been relentless. American B-2 stealth bombers have struck Iran’s buried missile infrastructure with dozens of massive penetrating munitions. A large Iranian naval vessel has been hit and possibly destroyed. Israel has issued mass evacuation orders in Lebanon covering over one million people and struck Hezbollah’s command infrastructure across Beirut. The defense secretary has promised a dramatic surge in US firepower. The IDF chief has promised undisclosed new operations.
Iran’s current government has not cooperated with Trump’s post-war planning. The leadership council has begun meeting to determine how to convene the assembly of experts responsible for selecting a new supreme leader — according to Iran’s own constitutional processes, not Trump’s preferences. Iranian state television has broadcast large, emotional crowds at Friday prayers in Tehran, mourning Khamenei and pledging continued resistance. The Revolutionary Guards have continued launching missiles and drones at US bases and Israeli territory.
Trump’s comments in an interview about wanting to be involved in choosing Iran’s new leader drew particular attention. He dismissed the leading candidate, Mojtaba Khamenei, as “a lightweight,” and said he wanted someone who would bring peace to Iran. The White House did not clarify how a sitting American president would exercise influence over a theocratic succession process in a country the US is currently bombing. The remark suggested a level of post-conflict planning that has not been publicly articulated in any detail.
The distance between Trump’s vision and the current reality is enormous. Iran is still fighting. Its government is still standing. Its people are being killed in large numbers by American and Israeli bombs. Over a thousand have died. A girls’ school has been destroyed. The internet has been cut off. For the Iranian people Trump is ostensibly trying to liberate, his vision for their future must seem very distant indeed.